Tuesday’s midterm elections were not the stinging rebuke of the Trump Administration that Democrats had been hoping for. The party has retaken the House of Representatives, gaining at least 27 seats. Despite this success, Democrats lost ground in the Senate, and the House results were not as clear-cut a victory as rosier projections had expected. These mixed results make the election difficult to categorize overall. More than anything, the election shows a country that is drifting ever further apart politically.

In the House, the results largely conformed to pre-election polling. According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats won the majority of seats that leaned toward their party, Republicans won most GOP-leaning districts, and Democrats clinched a slight majority of the races pegged as tossups.

At the state level, Democrats saw gains in several key states. Pennsylvania stands out in particular, with Democrats gaining four seats in the wake of a court-ordered redistricting that made the state more competitive. In New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats built on existing advantages, winning three seats in each. Meanwhile, Democrats won two seats apiece in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas.

Overall, the House races accentuate the existing trend of urban-rural polarization. The three most surprising Democratic victories, NY-11, SC-1, and OK-5, all came from urban communities. The same applies to Georgia’s 6th District, which Republican Karen Handel narrowly won in last year’s special election. On Tuesday, the district voted in Democrat Lucy McBath after a hard-fought contest. Also, the two House seats Democrats won in Florida were centered on Miami-Dade County. These results suggest that the divide between urban and rural voters are only intensifying under the Trump Administration.

One other noteworthy trend in last night’s House races is the success for minorities in key races. The 116th Congress will see Native American and Muslim women to join its ranks for the first time. Native American candidates Sharice Davids of Kansas and Debra Halland of New Mexico won their races Tuesday. Two Muslim candidates also won, with Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar scoring victories in Michigan and Minnesota. Democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also made history – at 29, she is the youngest woman ever be elected to Congress.

In the Senate, the Democrats faced an uphill battle to retake the chamber this year, with 26 seats up for reelection to only nine for the Republicans. With so many incumbents facing challenges, many of them in heavily conservative states, Democrats were unable to avoid significant losses. Joe Donnelly of Indiana fell behind early in the night and never recovered, while North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill also lost decisively. Bill Nelson in Florida held on more stubbornly, and is currently seeking a recount.

Meanwhile, the Democrats saw little success from their limited opportunities to flip Republican seats. Beto O’Rourke suffered a narrow defeat in his challenge to Ted Cruz in Texas. Tennessee’s election was more clear-cut, with Marsha Blackburn besting Democrat Phil Bredesen. The race to replace Jeff Flake in Arizona has not been called, but Kyrsten Sinema trails Martha McSally. The sole Democratic Senate victory came from Nevada, where Dean Heller was ousted by Jacky Rosen.

Despite the mixed victory for Congress, last night’s most promising gains for Democrats came at the state level. Democrats won seven Governor’s races, as well as winning legislative chambers in at least six states. The gubernatorial victories ranged from bluer states like Illinois and Maine, to swing states like Wisconsin and Nevada, to a surprise victory in highly conservative Kansas.

The common thread across many of the gubernatorial races was dissatisfaction with unpopular incumbents. Illinois and Kansas voters blamed incumbents Bruce Rauner and Sam Brownback for catastrophically damaging the two states’ finances. Wisconsin’s Scott Walker and Maine’s Paul LePage alienated voters with their abrasive approaches to governing. And in Michigan, Governor Rick Snyder has suffered for his mishandling of the water contamination in Flint.

Democrats also enjoyed two historic successes in last night’s Governor’s races. In Colorado, Jared Polis became the first openly gay man to be elected to a Governor’s mansion. And in New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham became the first Latina woman to get elected Governor as a Democrat.

Not every Governor’s race went well for the Democrats, however. Andrew Gillum narrowly lost his race in Florida, and Richard Cordray was bested in Ohio. Stacey Abrams hasn’t conceded defeat in Georgia, but she trails Georgia Attorney General Brian Kemp by 1.6 points. The loss in Florida is especially critical – Republican success increases the danger of favorable redistricting after the 2020 census, putting Congressional victories in the state even further out of reach for Democrats. This is less of a concern for Ohio, where voters approved rules for a bipartisan redistricting process earlier this year.

All in all, Tuesday’s results should still be considered a success for Democrats, albeit a qualified one. Republican control of the Senate will only exacerbate conservative influence in the judiciary branch, possibly for years to come. However, seizing the House of Representatives will let Democrats conduct investigations into Trump Administration misconduct, which may cripple the White House. Also, the House is responsible for the first drafts of all spending bills, giving the Democrats considerable sway over the federal budget.

Moreover, the Democratic success at the state level will improve their national prospects in future elections – many Congressmen begin their careers in state legislatures. The Trump Administration no longer has free rein to push its agenda, but that may prove the least of their worries.

The post For Democrats, a Mixed Success in 2018 Midterms appeared first on Pavement Pieces.

Hours before Judge Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed to the Supreme Court today, about 200 protesters gathered outside of Washington Square Park and mourned the battle they knew was lost, but pleaded with New Yorkers to vote in the upcoming midterms.

“This is a hot mess time,” said the Reverend Doctor Jacqui Lewis, a senior minister at Middle Collegiate Church in the East Village. “Never, never have I experienced this.”

Lewis said that while the current situation looked bleak, Americans have been here before, and know that voting is the only answer.

“We know what to do,” she said. “We know how to pray with our feet. We know how to withhold our vote from all the folks who are taking money from the NRA, who are putting our children in cages, all the folks who believe in incarcerating (f0r) weed, for God’s sakes. Pay attention, let’s vote, and do not let your hearts be troubled. Instead, turn your rage into action.”

Women protestors spoke emotionally, sometimes shouting through tears, speaking to the crowd through a megaphone. Dozens held signs protesting Kavanaugh and the current administration, and a few led chants which included “Believe the women,” and “Find another nominee.” Others shared their own stories of assault and trauma, and were comforted and cheered on by the crowd.

Several speakers implored those in the crowd to vote and proactively support candidates in the upcoming midterm elections by canvassing and campaigning.

“The best thing for your mental health right now is proactive coping,” said psychologist Victoria Barry, who holds an elected seat on the Democratic County Committee. “I think voting is the most powerful and immediate way we have to change the course of the country in a very fundamental way. Not nearly enough people do it. It’s the only way we have to fight back legislatively, as people who are not government officials.”

In the 2016 election, only approximately 55 percent of eligible citizens voted, marking a 20-year low, according to CNN. In that election, New York ranked 41st in the nation for turnout, and in the last midterm election, statewide turnout was only 34 percent, according to The Atlantic. In the 2017 mayoral primary, just 12 percent of eligible voters in New York City voted.

Barry also encouraged protestors to do more than just vote, particularly highlighting buses organized by ActBlue, which travel from New York City to canvass throughout the rest of the state.

Protesters included images of Brett Kavanaugh during his testimony on their signs during today’s Washington Square Park protest. Photo by Kerry Breen.

Others at the protest passed out voter registration forms. Another speaker, Sarah O’Neill, spoke about the organization Postcards to Voters, which sends hundreds of thousands of handwritten postcards across the country, encouraging recipients to vote for specific, usually progressive, candidates.

Lewis, who has attended and been arrested at protests in Washington, D.C., added that voting is one of the most important steps New Yorkers could take in the upcoming elections, and said that people will be able to register to vote outside of the Middle Collegiate Church every Sunday until the election.

“What I want to say to New Yorkers is, if you haven’t registered to vote by now, run,” she said. “Run to the computer where you can do it easily. We only have until October 12th to do it. Two, to read, and educate ourselves on where the races are close. Find the news source that works for you. Pay attention to the races that are close, and send your money to the candidates that stand for what you believe. Find your issue and stay with it. Vote for the common good. Vote, vote, vote.”

Several people at the rally, including those involved with local grassroots organizations, agreed that they had seen an increase in engagement from the general public since the 2016 election, even among themselves.

“I hadn’t been paying attention to who was my state senator, to who was my state assemblyman, until the 2016 election,” said Allison Mingus, who serves on the executive committee of the Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats. “I think more people are motivated now, more than ever, to get involved at a local level, and that’s what changes things.”

Allison Mingus and Ben Theodore, members of the executive committee of the Central Brooklyn Independent Democrats, came to the Washington Square Park protest to support Christine Blakey-Ford. Photo by Kerry Breen.

Ben Theodore said more people seem to want to work on get out the vote efforts.

“For this past September primary, the number of people who would walk through the door and say “I have never canvassed before, I haven’t canvassed in 30 years, but I’m showing up now” – that is the sign of this is it, that it is hopefully going to be different this time,” said Theodore, who serves on the same committee as Mingus.

Gus Christensen, the Chief Strategist of NO IDC NY, a grassroots organization working to flip the New York State Senate from Republican to Democratic, said the placement of Kavanaugh on the court made it all the more critical for progressive Democrats to take control of the New York State Senate, so that critical legislature covering reproductive health and non-discriminatory measures can be passed.

“The elevation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court presents a clear and present danger to Roe vs. Wade, and to the rights of women, of LGBT Americans, of immigrants and people of color.”

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