On Tuesday, over 150 of the nation’s top economists penned an open letter calling for “immediate, bold action” to prevent the country’s coronavirus-induced recession from getting worse. 

The letter, published by the Economic Security Project and the Justice Collaborative, urged members of Congress, who will be back in session on July 20, to craft a generous and multifaceted COVID-response package that includes extended and enhanced unemployment benefits, and significant aid to state and local governments. 

Above all, the letter urges Congress to pass recurring direct cash payments to individuals and families that would be triggered by weak economic data, like high unemployment rates, and last until the economy recovers. Essentially, the proposal would issue government checks to Americans on autopilot, so that the amount of dispersed aid increases or decreases without further action by Congress.

“Even after businesses start to re-open and jobs begin to come back, there will be significant economic fallout, and demand will continue to lag if people don’t have money to spend,” the letter says. “Regular direct stimulus payments tied to economic indicators will help families stay afloat and drive economic activity.”

Economists refer to the policy as an “automatic stabilizer,” and they consider it an important recession-fighting tool because once written into law,  it’s designed to kick in without further iterations of federal legislation. Automatic stabilizers inject money into the economy when it’s weak and withdraw stimulus when it’s strong, skipping the guessing game between federal politicians and analysts of trying to adequately scale individual relief bills.

During past recessions, economists, policy analysts, and Congress have engaged in a cumbersome dance of predicting the length and breadth of economic downturns to draft and implement fiscal policies. Following the Great Recession, for instance, Congress passed a $840 billion relief bill that included virtually zero support for states and municipalities, a misfire that contributed to a sluggish, decades-long recovery. 

To avoid these often delayed and incorrectly targeted fiscal responses produced through the conventional political process, the cohort of economists are pushing for policies — like recurring direct cash payments and continued expanded unemployment insurance — that pin amounts received and periods of eligibility to the jobless rate rather than arbitrary deadlines agreed to by politicians. 

Professor Dietrich Vollrath, chair of the University of Houston’s economics department and a signatory of the open letter, said that using automatic stabilizers keeps Congress, an institution that generally lacks the foresight to accurately and efficiently forecast the length and severity of recessions, from estimating the appropriate magnitude of fiscal aid. 

“When we passed the CARES Act in March, and offered an additional $600 in unemployment insurance per week, the end of July seemed like a long time away,” Vollrath said. “It seems that under competent leadership, a pandemic would have been handled by then — obviously it hasn’t.” 

Though automatic stabilizers are gaining steam among center and left-of-center academics, as well as policy wonks on Twitter, they face opposition on Capitol Hill. 

During Congress’ first round of negotiations for coronavirus relief, the House passed a $3 trillion package that omitted automatic stabilizers after several Democrats who introduced legislation that included the policy feature compromised to advance other fiscal priorities. Moreover, this was the first bill the Democratic-controlled House sent over to the Senate, so even if it had included automatic stabilizers, it would’ve likely have been negotiated out of the final version. 

Most recently, in response to many Democrats signalling their support for tying automatic stabilizers to an extension of the $600-per-week unemployment insurance bonus, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, citing the Republican argument of creating a disincentive to work, said it would be “a mistake.” 

Another conservative argument against automatic stabilizers is its price tag: a Congressional Budget Office score of an automatic stabilizer policy–which could last for several years as unemployment is projected to remain high for at least the remainder of 2020–would be larger than that of a fiscal package that expires, say, after a few months. 

But proponents of automatic stabilizers assert that this is a false comparison, and a more astute one must account for the cost of potentially not doing enough. 

“To me, the cost of doing too little is enormous,” said Claudia Sahm, a signee of the letter and director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable growth. “I am very honest and transparent about how these proposals are big dollars and would add to the deficit. In a recession, I believe it’s totally worth it.” 

Even so, as states and cities roll back their reopenings and reinstitute stay-at-home orders, economists who are in favor of extending enhanced unemployment insurance argue that there isn’t much empirical data to support the disincentive argument. 

Rather, they claim that given the US economy’s current lag in demand, and because most people can’t safely return back to work, an effective fiscal response is one that puts money into the hands of Americans without expecting or forcing them to leave their homes. 

“The whole point of [unemployment insurance] and direct payments is for us to pay people’s rent and fixed expenses so that, for the love of God, they stay put and don’t get sick,” Vollrath said. “Don’t go anywhere.” 

Of course, the reality is that the US is five months away from a presidential election. 

And with an incumbent who has turned mask-wearing into a political litmus test, and with little appetite for bipartisanship in Washington, it’s unclear  what Congress will come up with. 

“Nobody knows right now what [Congress] is actually going to pass,” said Sahm. “They’re going to pull a rabbit out of a hat, but we have no idea if it’s going to be a tiny little runt of a rabbit or if it’s gonna be the big one.” 

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A wave of corporate bankruptcies has  claimed 3,604 businesses  in the first half the year, up from 2,855 from the same period last year, according to Epiq Global, a firm that tracks data from US bankruptcy courts. With no vaccine for the virus yet, the coronavirus is still holding back the US economy, and bankruptcy filings are likely to accelerate, experts say.

“Companies in sectors like energy, retail and hospitality will continue to be under substantial pressure and see a lot of bankruptcy filings,” said Peter Friedman, a leading bankruptcy and restructuring litigator at law firm O’Melveny.

A pullback in consumer spending has hit retail stores hard, which were already facing tough competition from e-commerce giants like Amazon. Energy companies have also been hurt as the crisis sapped the demand for oil after travel and economic activity came to a screeching halt.

Under the Paycheck Protection Program, an aid program for small and mid-sized businesses, the government has issued 4.9 million loans totaling $521 billion as of June 30.  The program was set to expire on June 30, but Congress has extended it to Aug. 8.

Experts aid can help sustain businesses, but this model can’t be the panacea.

Despite receiving PPP loans, many companies are still going bust. Toojay’s, a popular Florida-based deli chain that had received $6.4 million in stimulus funds, is one of them. Almost one out of every 12 companies that have gone bankrupt since early April got PPP loans, according to a research firm bankruptcydata.com.

“PPP obviously can be helpful, but fundamentally if there is a loss in revenue or too much leverage on the business, it’s a different picture,” said Friedman.

Many debt-saddled firms could begin to file for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 if the economy doesn’t rebound.

Chapter 11 of the US bankruptcy code allows a troubled company to restructure its debt while continuing to operate. If the company fails to pay its creditors, its assets are liquidated under Chapter 7. June was a particularly bad month for companies this year. Commercial Chapter 11 filings were up 43% over June of last year, with 609 new filings, Epiq Global said. A total of 1,0121 companies were liquidated under Chapter 7 filings this year so far.

One of the biggest corporate casualties under Chapter 11 was Hertz, after stay-at-home orders   whacked its business. Already sitting on $17 billion in debt, the company gave in.

Household retailer J.C. Penney also filed for bankruptcy, after it struggled to service $4 billion in debt. The company has announced to close its 250 stores by the end of summer 2021.

“Going into recession with a heavy amount of debt is almost a recipe for bankruptcy,” Anthony Karydakis, Adjunct Professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said.

Karaydakis said companies that managed to survive the intense lockdown period, “are still not out of the woods yet.”

The piling up of debt and falling revenue has left companies teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.  Victoria’s Secret and Best Buy are among many that are on the edge.

US companies have piled on more than $11 trillion in debt over a decade, fueled in part by low interest rates from the Federal Reserve. For companies looking to raise funds, low interest rates make debt attractive because they lower borrowing cost. Cheap debt drives firms to take more debt at low interests from their creditors. But accumulating too much debt can be dangerous, especially when the economy slows.  Experts say many companies are likely to default on their debt payments now that the pandemic has hurt sales.

“Taking debt when the economy is doing ok is relatively manageable, but debt starts becoming a threat to the existence of certain companies when the economy slows down,” Karydakis said.

“Companies can’t hang around without making payments on their debt.”

Karydakis also says as more companies go bankrupt in the coming months there will be more job losses in the US. At 11.1%, unemployment still remains higher than at any point during the Great Recession. Karydakis noted it’s possible bankruptcies could keep unemployment elevated for months to come.

“Companies are going to lay off as more bankruptcies pile up. This will slow the pace of recovering the job market. This is a story that is not going away,” he added.

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 Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said at a post-meeting news conference that he projected a slow economic recovery from the pandemic could start in the second half of 2020 and last years. 

 “We’re not even thinking about raising rates,” Powell said to reporters. “So what we’re thinking about is providing support for this economy. We do think this is going to take some time.”

The Trump administration has pushed for more extreme stimulus measures, from monetary to fiscal policies and predicted a rapid recovery from the coronavirus. He lashed out against Powell on Twitter in March, saying the Fed had “raised rates too fast and lowered too late,” and urged the Fed to “stimulate!” 

During a news briefing at the White House in April, Trump said investors “have a lot of confidence that we are doing the right thing and that our country is going to be open soon and our country is going to be booming.”

Yet, even after the Fed slashed interest rates and launched the unprecedented asset-buying program, the latest forecast still disappointed the president’s optimistic look. 

 The Fed has two explicit goals: to keep the long-term inflation rate stable and maximize employment. As the pandemic slashed Americans’ spending power, the inflation rate has remained well under the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed acknowledged that the “unemployment remains historically high,” despite the surprising May jobs report. 

 In May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 2.5 million jobs, with the unemployment rate declining to 13.3% from April’s 14.7%. But the report included a note saying that there had been a “misclassification error,” and the overall unemployment rate could “have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported.” 

American workers haven’t experienced unemployment that high since the Great Depression.

 “The May employment report, of course, was a welcome surprise. Very pleased. We hope we get many more like it. But I think we have to be honest that it’s a long road,” Powell said in the press conference. 

 The Fed will continue to buy bonds as it continues one of its stimulus programs known as “quantitative easing.” That program increases the country’s money supply and further reduces interest rates, which in turn, can boost the economy by making it more attractive for households and businesses to borrow money. Since starting the program in March, the Fed has tapered it significantly, purchasing just $4 billion per day in Treasuries this week versus $75 billion at the peak in March.

Powell said, in the next few months, that the Fed will “gradually reduce the pace” since the ongoing purchases “have helped to restore orderly market conditions and fostered more accommodative financial conditions.” 

 After not giving an economic outlook during its March meeting, citing tremendous uncertainties ahead, the Fed gave its first forecasts for the economy since December. Fed officials expected the real GDP to contract 6.5% in 2020, with the unemployment rate at 9.3%. The US economy shrank by 4.8%, marking the first contraction since 2014. 

 This cautious tone is in line with analysts’ predictions. “There are potholes in the road ahead,” James Knightley, chief international economist of Ing, said in a statement. Knightley expected the economy to contract at around a 40% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2020.

 The Atlanta Fed’s latest model projected a 48.5% annualized drop in GDP in the second quarter, while the St. Louis Fed and New York Fed, which were more optimistic, estimated  25% and 35% declines respectively. A slowdown of that magnitude would mark the deepest quarterly drop in economic activity on record, since the government started tracking the data in 1947. 

 In response to a question about the Fed’s forecasts, Powell noted that the future is highly contingent on the pandemic. The World Health Organization on Monday warned that the pandemic is “far from over” after a record number of new daily cases in Central America and Latin America. 

 In the US, after the Memorial Day weekend and nationwide protests in support of black lives, at least nine states reported significant upticks in coronavirus hospitalizations, according to the data of John Hopkins University. If a second wave arrives in the fall, as the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention Chief Robert Redfield warned, states could be forced to shut down again. 

Powell said that the Fed would do “whatever we can, and for as long as it takes to provide some relief and stability” and to “limit lasting damage to the economy.” 

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Despite health leaders advice to social distance to fight the pandemic, Syrians citizens are protesting against the country’s economic crisis and sanctions.

“The arrival of coronavirus is problematic for all countries,” said Christian Thuselt, lecturer of Middle East Politics at the Department of Political Science at the Friedrich Alexander University Erlangen Nuremberg. “Now the virus is spreading to the weaker states. In Syria, the economy is in shambles, millions have fled, nine million Syrians suffer from malnutrition That makes them more vulnerable.”

Hundreds of protestors demanding government action during the country’s economic crisis recently marched on the streets of Sweidaa, a city in the south of Syria.  But protests are erupting all over the country. 

During the past 36 hours the cities of Damascus & Idlib in #Syria have witnessed rallies against poverty, unemployment & economic difficulties. Demonstrators are demanding Assad step down in order to end the war & bring an end to meddling by #Iran & Russia in their country. pic.twitter.com/pEkDKPGcDc

— Heshmat Alavi (@HeshmatAlavi) June 8, 2020

The civil war has killed more than 380,000 people and displaced millions since it began in 2011. The war started to crush anti-regime protests.

For non-Arabic speakers,these are the most prominent slogans chanted in the demonstrations in #Suwayda yesterday. #Syria #SyrianLivesMatter pic.twitter.com/mWP1IrRBKs

— السويداء 24 (@suwayda24) June 8, 2020

The coronavirus has  furthered the economic collapse of Syria. Food prices have more than doubled and now 7.9 million people are considered food insecure, according to the World Food Programme., The Syrian pound on the parallel market fell 50% and the minimum wage  now equals $26 a month. Eighty percent of the population is living in poverty.

“They’re literally risking their lives to go into the streets . . . [showing] just how desperate people have become,” Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser at the United States Institute of Peace told the Financial Times.

Bakeries are closing, doctors are closing, shops are closing, businesses are closing. Millions of parents aren’t able to put food on the table for their kids. They can’t buy food or milk 4 their babies. Some people are offering to sell their organs so they can help their families

— Ahmad Al-Rashid ✪ (@ahmadalrashid99) June 9, 2020

Syria’s President Bashar al- Assad blames the economic situation on western sanctions. In 2011 through Executive Order 13582, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Syria’s government, prohibiting U.S. individuals to export or to sell services to Syria, like petroleum products. The sanctions were intended to deprive the regime of resources needed to as it brutally clamped down on citizens demanding change. The European Union followed a similar path and extended its sanctions against the Syrian regime.

The Syrian government won the the civil war with the help of countries like Russia and Iran ,but the war led to the destruction of 70% of the country’s economy and infrastructure, including medical facilities.

“Our hospitals are not provided with respiratory support devices or enough doctors,” said Mohammed, who works at a public hospital in Aleppo and did not want to give his full name. “Hospitals are good to handle a lot, but not in large numbers, like a pandemic this big. In my city, for example, we have only something like four ventilators, and they are most likely occupied.”

Syrians on Facebook groups offering to donate portions of their scarce medication. “No more medicine of any type available, even aspirin and cetamol were cut”
“I just had a thyroid cyst removed and I can’t stay without thyroxine and it’s also cut”
“I am on the last bottle” pic.twitter.com/PdSxEXa8PD

— jaro (@LaconicJaro) June 10, 2020

Thuselt said medicine is a prestigious profession and many doctors and medical students fled because of the war.

“I believe that the number is up to 70% of the medical staff has fled Syria, and so did students,” he said.“They are usually privately financed and their families do everything to take them out of Syria.”

According to World O’ Meter, Syria has 144 coronavirus cases and has registered only nine deaths.

To contain the virus, doctors gave residents the standard protocol, stay home, wash your hands and use face masks, Mohammed said.

“We also had some mobilization on Facebook groups,” he said. “The government established a curfew, so we aren’t allowed to leave the house after 6 p.m. on weekdays and on weekends after 12 p.m.,” Mohammed said.

Thuselt doesn’t believe they are accurate.

“There’s one thing that they [the government] won’t admit, it is defeat,” he said “They act as if the country is perfect, everything is just perfect. A good example was when Homs was under siege and Syrian state television, brought up peaceful pictures of Homs. They are bad at admitting that they are being defeated.”

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 “It would be wrong and unjust for Americans laid off by the virus to be replaced by new immigrant labor flown in from abroad,” Trump said during today’s press briefing. “We must first take care of the American worker.”  

With immigration being the strawman of the Trump presidency, the abrupt announcement comes as his administration faces growing criticism over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak. 

 The executive order would remain in effect for 60 days, and after that, the need for an “extension or modification” to the original order would be evaluated by Trump and an unnamed group of people.

 “This order will only apply to individuals seeking permanent residency,” said Trump. “It will not apply to those entering on a temporary basis.”

 Although there is currently no evidence to back that immigration would be taxing on the reopening of the United States, Trump claimed that the restrictions are not only to protect American workers, but also to conserve medical supplies for American citizens. 

Trump anticipates signing the order by tonight.

 FDA officials have approved a “highly accurate” at-home version of the coronavirus test, according to Trump. Labcorp, the company behind the new self-testing kits, plans to make them available with a doctor’s orders for most states in the coming weeks.

 In addition to the at-home test, the United States will begin implementing antibody tests, which can detect if someone has contracted and subsequently beat the virus.

 Earlier today, President Trump and Gov. Andrew Cuomo met at the White House to discuss virus testing and how to boost its volume in New York.

 Following the meeting, Cuomo told MSNBC via telephone interview, “The meeting went well, and I think it was productive. The big issue was testing.”

Trump said Cuomo indicated that the USNS Comfort was no longer required in New York and would be able to deploy to other states in need.

 “We will be bringing the ship back at its earliest time,” said Trump. “We’ll be getting it ready for its next mission.”

 The meeting follows a heated back and forth between the governor and president as tensions between the pair have escalated as the pandemic grows  Recently, after requesting more ventilators and other medical supplies, Trump accused Cuomo of magnifying the need for more aid in New York, the world’s epicenter for coronavirus cases. Cuomo fired back at Trump to “stop watching TV and get back to work.”

 Since then, Trump has changed his tune. At a press conference on Monday, after discussing the coordination of COVID-19 testing at 300 labs in New York, Trump said, “They are getting it together in New York. A lot of good things are happening in New York.” 

 Trump repeated his praise, claiming that he is “proud” of the relationship between his administration and New York.  

 Trump’s statement and optimism are in stark contrast to the feelings of Mayor Bill de Blasio, who told CNN on Tuesday, “We’re fighting the battle still on the ground, and you have people in Washington acting like it’s all over. It’s not over!” 

 Prior to departing to Washington D.C. for the White House  meeting, Cuomo held a briefing in Buffalo, New York. Cuomo reported 481 coronavirus-related deaths, a slight increase from just the day before when 478 deaths were tallied. In total, New York now has reported 14,828 coronavirus-related deaths across the state.

Cuomo has now decided to accept a regional approach that will allow part of New York State to reopen to get the economy moving again, at least in some places. The approach looks at data that tracks the number of cases, hospitalization rates and other elements to determine if reopening is safe in that area. Yesterday he said he favored a statewide approach. 

 “We operate as one state but we also have to understand variations, and you do want to get this economy open as soon as possible,” said Cuomo.  

 As New York extends its shutdown to May 15, other states are beginning to lift restrictions that were set in place to flatten the curve of COVID-19. South Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and Tennessee are to begin reopening this week. 

 In Georgia, gyms, barbershops, salons and tattoo studios will be back in business by Friday, April 24. Georgians will be able to go to restaurants and movie theaters by Monday, April 28. 

 For Tennessee, restrictions will not surpass April 30, allowing the “majority of businesses in 89 counties” to reopen, Gov. Bill Lee’s office told the New York Times. Following suit, Ohio will reopen May 1 as well. 

 In South Carolina, businesses deemed nonessential, such as retail stores, will be allowed to open up shop but must follow social distancing orders. Beaches will also open to the public today. 

 The openings come after a series of protests reflecting the growing frustrations of people fed up with the shutdown restrictions and unable to sustain themselves without continuing to work. 

 In economic news, the effects of the coronavirus have hit the United States oil industry, lowering the price of crude oil to negative $37.65 below zero. 

 The price does not reflect the cost of a physical oil-filled barrel, but rather the futures contracts between buyers and sellers. Futures contracts are what the oil industry uses to dictate pricing, as they outline agreements of supply and demand for the months to come. With people flying and driving at far less scale, the need for refined oil has diminished. And since oil refineries have been slow to halt production, a surplus has built up not allowing the market to refresh, thus lowering the market price. 

 In an industry suffering less during the COVID-19 pandemic, New York-based fast-food chain Shake Shack is returning a $10 million government loan it received meant for small businesses. According to Shake Shack founders and board members, the company gained access to additional capital and is returning it so it can be given to businesses who need it more. In a joint statement posted on LinkedIn by Shake Shack founder Danny Meyer and CEO Randy Garutti wrote, “Until every restaurant that needs it has had the same opportunity to receive assistance, we’re returning ours.”

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Felipe is not that lucky. Living in a small town that borders New Hampshire, he gets up at 7 am every Saturday to catch a van that takes him to Manchester. The 18-year-old will then work at a food stand in the Southern   New Hampshire University Arena for 10 hours, and head back home in the midnight with $100 in hand.

Both Vanessa and Felipe are looking forward to a higher minimum wage being implemented in New Hampshire. The current rate of $7.25 an hour is the lowest in New England but the cost of living is among the highest in the nation.    These teens are not  alone.

In May 2019, a survey  by Public Policy Polling showed that more than 60% of New Hampshire residents strongly supported raising the minimum wage to $12 by 2022. It would affect more than 150,000 employees who make up 24% of New Hampshire’s labor force, according to a research by the Economic Policy Institute.

 The Democratic Presidential candidates want to push it further. They  want to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.  Of the seven candidates who qualified for the February debates in the 2020 election cycle, five support a federal minimum wage of $15, including Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders, the two forerunners in the Iowa caucus. A $15 minimum wage would benefit even more New Hampshire workers – some  225,000 people in New Hampshire, representing 36% of the state’s labor force, according to a report by the National Employment Project.

Calls to double the minimum wage in New Hampshire have garnered  tremendous support from local unions. SEA/SEIU Local 1984, a New Hampshire branch of the Service Employees International Union, announced on January 12 that it would endorse Bernie Sanders for the Democratic presidential nomination. The endorsement decision distanced the local branch from its national affiliate, which has so far remained neutral in the presidential race.

Yet economists do not think minimum wage alone would do much to New Hampshire’s economy, which already has one of the lowest poverty rates in the nation. A classical economic theory suggests that a higher minimum wage could lead to a higher unemployment rate as companies lay off workers when they cannot afford to pay higher wages,  according to Guido Menzio, professor of labor economics at New York University.

The theory does seem to be on display in New Hampshire where the state’s $7.25 minimum wage law is accompanied by a 2.6% unemployment rate, the third-lowest in the nation.

Menzio also points out that an increase in the minimum wage might improve the efficiency of the economy by weeding out unproductive employers. But, he said, it does not necessarily improve workers’ living conditions.

“Workers may be paid $15 rather than $10 an hour but required to have their own transportation, work longer effective hours, or work more intense hours,” said Menzio.

C.J., who used to work as a pastry chef in New Hampshire for 20 years, agreed with Menzio on the point that a simple increase in wage did not make his life easier. “I used to live on minimum wage for years,” said C.J. who spoke anonymously because he did not want to be seen being critical of his employer.  “when I got promoted to the management level, I started working 60, 70, or even 80 hours per week. If you divide the pay by the hours I work, I was paid even less than the minimum wage.”

What C.J. really likes about his  current job is that his employer provides him with a solid benefit package. “Now I have insurance, and can take a paid-leave — these are more important factors than a simple rise in wage,” said C.J.

Ethan, a first-year student at Manchester Community College who works 1o hours at an  ice-cream stand and 20 hours as a construction worker, says he gets paid $300 per week and needs more money. “But I don’t think $15 would do much to my life,” said Ethan, “I think the inflation will ultimately offset such little increase in my hourly wage.”

Karen Conway, economist at the University of New Hampshire, is a strong opponent of a $15 minimum wage for the state. “The cost of living varies dramatically across the country and even within New Hampshire,” said Conway. “The northern part of the state is more rural and hence has more small firms, which are more likely to lay off people if the minimum wage rises.”

Jacob Vigdor, an expert on minimum wage who teaches at the University of Washington, thinks the effect of a rise of minimum wage on unemployment depends on the economy’s condition. “If the minimum wage is raised rapidly in the middle of a recession, employers may face greater difficulty in making payroll. If the wage is phased in slowly in a strong labor market, it may have no impact at all as wages tend to rise naturally in a strong labor market.”

Bruce Sacerdote, a labor economist at Dartmouth College, thinks that the labor market in New Hampshire is strong enough to afford some layoff. “I am in favor [of a $15 minimum wage] given recent studies on the minimum wage law that suggest that this does put a floor on wages for low-income folks, and the reductions in employment are not severe,” said Sacerdote.

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The natural gas industry has created jobs in central Pennsylvania, but residents say there are economic consequences as well. Photo by Eric Zerkel

WILLIAMSPORT, Pa. — Just over the Susquehanna River, along freshly paved streets, the taupe stucco facades of hotels jut out in rows, blotting out the old church steeples and glass storefronts of small-town Pennsylvania.

This is the new Williamsport, a city transformed from a quaint logging town into a bustling corporate hub by the natural gas-rich Marcellus Shale formation below ground.

“It has truly been an amazing renaissance,” said Vince Matteo, president of the Williamsport/Lycoming Chamber of Commerce.

Over the past four years, Matteo said he has seen more than 100 new businesses sprout up in the county, leading Williamsport to be named the seventh fastest growing metropolitan area in the country.

“I’ve been involved in economic development chamber work for 31 years and have seen good times and bad times, and from an economic development standpoint I’ve never seen something this good before,” said Matteo.

But outside of Williamsport, on the stretches of farmland and rolling hills, locals see little of the “boom” of the natural gas industry. Leading some to question whether the industry will have a real and lasting impact on local rural communities.

“The natural gas industry is extractive by nature,” said John Trallo, 60, of Sonestown, Pa. “There is a short-term boost for the area when they have to set up the wells, but once the wells are in the ground, the jobs move on.”

Trallo lives 45 minutes outside of Williamsport, in neighboring Sullivan County, where he said he sees little evidence of the positive economic impacts that Matteo and Williamsport experience.

Instead, Trallo said he has witnessed the slow decay of many staple businesses of the area as the demand for business follows “frackers” to Williamsport.

“The mom and pop stores, the campgrounds, the farming supply stores, we’re just watching them disappear,” said Trallo, who runs his own small business – a music lessons and instrument repair shop – out of his home. “The jobs that we’re losing, once they’re gone, are not coming back.”

While drill sites are located hours outside of Williamsport, workers use the city as an industrial hub, booking up hotels, and shipping out in company provided econo-vans to areas in Bradford, Sullivan and Susquehanna Counties.

With so many new temporary residents, Matteo said that jobs are not only created within gas companies, but also are taking hold within Williamsport.

“There is a trickle down effect,” Matteo said. “You have all these companies that are doing work on the Marcellus Shale, but they are spending money in our hotels, in our restaurants, and in our stores.”

Twenty miles east, in Moreland Township, Drake Saxton sees little of the trickle-down. Saxton said that the high presence of out-of-state workers was a clear sign that the gas industry wasn’t concerned about the local economy.

“Take a look at the license plates on the cars around here – Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma – if they (the gas industry) are so good at picking up the local economy then why are they all still here?” said Saxton, 64.

Saxton runs a bed and breakfast and said the negatives of workers coming in and out of town drowned out any small economic impact felt locally.

“Let’s talk about the rest of what the frackers are bringing us – an increase in crime, ruts in the road a foot deep, blocked off roads, increased rent – it’s like they are saying get a job with the oil/gas industry or die off,” said Saxton.

Saxton’s business was recently put on hold, when massive ruts created by the trucks carrying water to and from drill sites kept him from being able to drive on and off his property for weeks.

“I couldn’t get out, the ruts were this deep,” Saxton said, as he stretched his hands apart the length of his torso.

Though the business has slowed the past few months, as gas prices have risen, trucks still drive through the streets of Williamsport on their way to drill sites. Something Matteo said he has no problem dealing with.

“There are impacts (from this industry) that aren’t positive, but overall if you asked me if I want them to be here with the additional problems and issues, or not be here, I’d say I’d want them to be here, and have people have these additional jobs,” Matteo said.

But for Trallo, jobs are the last thing on his mind.

“This is just another boom, and once they (the gas companies) are gone, what do we have left?” Trallo said. “This area is going to lose its charm.”

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Two empty storefronts line West Vernor Highway in Detroit's Mexicantown neighborhood. Despite a growing Hispanic population, many small businesses are struggling to stay open. Photo by Kathryn Kattalia

A lot has changed along the stretch of West Vernor where Jorge De Luna’s father opened his family’s bakery almost 40 years ago.

His pumpkin empanadas have not.

The smell of cinnamon filled Luna’s Bakery II near Junction Street as De Luna, 54, emerged from the kitchen, carrying a tray filled with the pastries that have always been a best seller at the Mexicantown panaderia.

But these days, business is slow, the street outside empty. Few people have reason to come down this way anymore, De Luna said.

For some living in Detroit, Mexicantown has been seen as a glimmer of hope for a declining city. In the southwest corner of the city, the largely Hispanic neighborhood has grown at the same time Detroit’s population has plummeted—down nearly 200,000 in the last 10 years. Today, Hispanics make up nearly 7% of the city’s population, up from 5% in 2000.

And yet, the increase in people hasn’t translated into more business for mom and pop stores. Small business owners say they are fighting a crippling economy while competing against larger chain stores that have moved into the area to capitalize on the population boom.

“We’re struggling,” De Luna said. “A lot of small businesses are struggling. Even in Mexicantown.”

It’s a reality that seems to go against everything some economists have predicted. Lyke Thompson, director of the Center for Urban Studies at Wayne State University, said that more people should mean more spending.

With its growing population, Mexicantown should have an advantage, Thompson said.

“People keep flowing in there,” he said. “They make a lot of small investments, which add up and produce a community that’s not upper class, you don’t see wealth oozing out, but it’s a community that is functioning. Stores are doing well.”

But the mom and pop businesses that call Mexicantown home tell a different story.

The Southwest Detroit Business Association estimates that there are more than 170 small businesses operating along the 2.5 mile strip of West Vernon stretching through Mexicantown. Ten have opened in the past year. Five have closed.

Walking down West Vernor, it’s easy to see how the community might have once been a vibrant area. Painted store windows still advertise businesses that have since moved out, boarded up liquor stores and food markets wedged between quiet bakeries and discount shops.

Bigger retail stores and restaurants like CVS, Payless and McDonald’s are common. Other stores, like Sam’s Supermercado on West Vernor near Lansing Street, come from outside Detroit, pushing out local markets, small business owners say.

“Small businesses are disappearing,” said De Luna. “It’s too hard to keep up.”

Some small business owners point fingers at larger stores coming into Southwest Detroit to capitalize on a growing population.

Tammy Alfonso-Koehler, owner of Honey Bee Market Colmena on Bagley and 23rd Street, said a loyal customer base has helped her keep her business running, but it’s been difficult.

Tammy Alfaro-Koehler, owner of Honey Bee Market La Colmena, stands outside her business. Her grandfather opened the Hispanic market in 1956. Photo by Kathryn Kattalia

One of the first Hispanic markets to pop up in Detroit, the Honey Bee Market has been in Alfonso-Koehler’s family since 1956. Alfonso-Koehler, 43, said her family has had to deal with an influx of new grocery stores.

“It’s on the news Southwest Detroit is doing well, Mexicantown is doing well,” Alfonso-Koehler said. “We have an overflow of supermarkets all of the sudden, when there are other areas of the city that need supermarkets. All of a sudden we have 12.”

Alfonso-Koehler said she has had to pay closer attention to the kinds of products she buys for the store, straying away from more traditional products like dried chilies and tortillas to include more recognized food items.

In one aisle, packages of Chips Ahoy are stacked next to Roscas, cinnamon flavored cookies.

“We have to be more cautious of what we’re buying,” she said. “Because of marketing, you find a lot of our types of products at Meijers and Wal-Mart, because once they get on to something, they want to make money too.”

Other local businesses say they have had to find more creative ways to fight back.

At La Jalisciense Tortilla Factory, a neighborhood staple that has churned out traditional corn tortillas on Bagley Street since 1946, owner Myrna Abundis said customers used to flock to the family-owned factory to take home freshly made tortillas. Today, she said they’ve had to look for customers elsewhere.

The majority of La Jalisciense’s business comes from area restaurants and local food markets, Abundis said. But the factory has also started selling its products in bulk to larger stores, like Ryan’s Foods and Whole Foods in Ann Arbor.

They’ve also been hurt by increased competition.

Myrna Abundis, owner of La Jalisciense Tortilla Factory, explains how corn tortillas are made from scratch. The family-owned tortilla factory, which opened in 1946, has been a Mexicantown staple for decades. Photo by Kathryn Kattalia

“Before, there used to be just two tortilla factories here,” Abundis said. “Now, there are tortilla factories everywhere.”

She said outside businesses, like the Chicago-based manufacturing company El Milagro Tortillas, have become increasingly prominent in the area, catering to a growing demand for traditional products.

“There’s an opportunity here and they just grabbed it,” she said.

Alfonso-Koehler said the biggest challenge facing Mexicantown is holding on to a slipping identity outside businesses are trying to take advantage of.

Still, she said she remains optimistic.

“We have been part of the city when everyone thought it was hopeless,” she said. “People around us want the city to grow and change. It’s our citizens who have to take initiative and know what’s going on and be involved. I really do think it’s possible. I really do.”

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Brendan Anderson has lived at Occupy Wall Street for six days and noticed more people visiting every day. Photo by Chris Palmer

The anti-corporate, disenfranchised spirit of the rally resonated with Stewart. Though he had a job, he had been unable to pay his bills for a few months, and he couldn’t find extra work where he lived, in Pueblo, Colo.

So he made a decision: he quit his job and headed to Occupy Wall Street.

“I told my friends, ‘You only live once,’” the 34-year-old said.

He was unhappy at work and the protest inspired him to take action.

“I figured if I was going to be depressed, going nowhere, it’d be better to come here, to New York City,” he said.

Stewart, who arrived in Manhattan this morning after spending 50 hours on a series of Greyhound buses, is one of a legion of new additions to the 3-week-old Occupy Wall Street movement, which is growing both in New York City and across the world.

“There are twice the amount of people here (today),” said Brendan Anderson, of Midland Beach, Staten Island. The unemployed 22-year-old has spent six straight days in Zuccotti Park and nodded emphatically when asked if the scene was different now from when he first arrived.

“Everyday it’s growing,” he said.

Eric Seligson, who volunteers with the library at the occupation site, said that there were thousands of people at the site this weekend. Photo by Chris Palmer

“If the cops thought (the arrests) would discourage people, they were wrong,” he said.

Kristin Schall, who was arrested on the bridge on Saturday, agreed.

“Getting arrested hasn’t deterred anyone,” she said. “It makes me want to protest more.”

Schall, 27, a student at Brooklyn College who lives in Pelham Bay in the Bronx, has visited two or three times a week since the movement launched September 17. She said there are more people at the site each times she visits.

“It seems to be growing every day,” she said.

That growth has been fueled in part by an amalgam of different visitors to the Occupy Wall Street site. In addition to new protesters, the site has received media members, celebrities, tourists, activist groups and politicians in recent days.

“Today is absolutely hopping,” said Lynn Rosen, 64, of Canarsie, Brooklyn.

Rosen was volunteering with a group seeking petition signatures against hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” a drilling procedure used by natural gas companies to extract gas from rocks deep beneath the earth’s surface.

She freely admitted that the reason her group chose to visit Occupy Wall Street was because of the amount of people at the park.

“I thought it was going to be a real hype-filled site,” said Rosen, who also was promoting a book she authored. She wandered the park with a clipboard and leaflets in hand, talking with anyone who would listen, and she noted that her efforts so far had been “very successful.”

Another visitor hoping to engage with protestors was Republican City Councilman Daniel J. Halloran III. While defending the availability of jobs in his home district of northeast Queens, he bemoaned corporate greed and answered questions from a swarm of interested observers.

“Corporations need to be broken up,” he said at one point, motioning towards the skyscrapers that tower over the park. “They’re not monopolies, but they’re monopolistic.”

As more guests and observers visit Zuccotti Park in Manhattan, the Occupy Wall Street movement is also picking up steam in other cities. Similar encampments have sprouted up in Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago and Washington, D.C., and multiple trade unions, including the Transport Workers Union, the United Federation of Teachers, and the Service Employees International Union, will participate in an Occupy Wall Street march tomorrow.

Kristen Carter, 46, a tourist visiting the site from Rhinebeck, N.Y., said that the more support the movement received, the more likely it was that change would occur.

“I think it’s coalescing,” she said.

And Stewart, who plans to search for work in New York while living at the occupation site, hopes that all of the increased attention leads to real change.

“The more solidarity we can get, the more support, the better,” he said. “’Til then, we’re just a bunch of hippies in a park.”

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