The report, published by the global environmental research organization Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), finds that China’s CO2 emissions surged back to a pre-lockdown level in May as power plants and factories reopened in the country. Emissions of health-harming pollutants such as PM2.5, NO2, and SO2 rose by 4% to 5% year-over-year, signaling an unwanted “dirty” recovery that might ruin the country’s efforts to go green over the past few years, the researchers say.

“All eyes are on China, as the first major economy to return to work after a lockdown,” the report said. “It’s obvious that once the economy starts to recover and production and transport to resume, much of the air pollution would return.”

 The study suggests that Chinese provinces that rely heavily on industrial productions are driving the increase, such as the coal-intensive Shanxi in central China and the chemical plants-filled Heilongjiang in the northeast. Meanwhile, air pollution was less severe in megacities like Beijing and Shanghai, which rely mostly on the service sector. 

 Lauri Myllyvirta, senior analyst covering China’s air quality and energy trends at CREA, suggests that the extent to which air pollution will rebound depends on the sources of pollution in different countries. China, for example, is dominated by industrial pollutants from its manufacturing sector, while most European countries are more concerned about carbon emissions produced by cars and other private transportations. Either way, “high-polluting industries have been fastest to recover from the crisis, whereas the service sector is left behind. [That’s why] the pollution has rebounded faster than the economy,” Myllyvirta said during an interview.

 From early February to mid-March, China’s strict lockdown measures caused the air pollution level to plummet by 25%, according to CREA’s analysis of the latest government data. And China is not alone. An article published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change shows that by early April, daily global carbon emissions dropped by 17% year over year, of which China and the United States were the biggest contributors.

 Prior to the pandemic, the Chinese government had laid out ambitious plans to cut pollution and ease the climate crisis, such as decreasing its energy consumption by 15% before 2020. Yet as the pandemic took its toll, the country chose to prioritize its economic recovery over meeting those targets. In late May, China’s Premier Li Keqiang scrapped a key measurement on energy consumption, speaking only vaguely about “a further drop in energy consumption per unit of GDP” while he was expected to set a clear percentage decrease.

 The resurgence in air pollution in China after COVID-19 reminds Myllyvirta of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, for which China shut down factories within 300 miles of the capital but reopened shortly after the games. “I remember the extremely blue sky in Beijing during the Olympics,” Myllyvirta said. “But after that, the pollution comes back. It comes back even worse in the following years.”

Other countries are expected to follow suit. In Europe, where public transportation is being discouraged for the sake of social distancing, “congestion levels and private cars emissions are roughly back to the pre-COVID level even though people are moving around less.” In India, “even the recovery is slow, there is still a risk of pollution coming back next winter because winter is the pollution season.”

Some environmental experts hold a more positive view about the post-COVID outlook on climate change. Jochen Markard, researcher at the Group of Sustainability and Technology in Zurich, and Daniel Rosenbloom, a postdoctoral fellow in the department of political science at University of Toronto, co-wrote in the May issue of Science Magazine that “COVID-19 recovery presents a strategic opportunity to transition toward a more sustainable world” if governments around the world implement greener COVID recovery plans, such as shutting down carbon-intensive companies and encouraging remote working. 

A 48-page report published by the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment also refers to fiscal recovery packages as the “biggest driver of the long-term impact on climate.” After surveying 231 key policymakers around the world, the report finds that there are multiple ways to meet both economic and climate goals, such as encouraging clean physical infrastructure investment, building efficiency retrofits, investing in education and training to address structural unemployment from decarbonization, etc.

Myllyvirta agrees that the solution lies in increasing the capacity of public transportation and supporting cleaner businesses rather than energy-intensive projects. Otherwise, the rebound “could cause strong reactions after the extremely pronounced clean air in the first half of this year.”

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By aggressively testing and tracing contacts, Beijing has managed to keep the rise in infections in single digits for a week. On July 4, the local government announced that it would no long require those who leave the city to be tested before departure. 

After three weeks of semi-shutdown, Beijing reopens. People gather in shopping centers, dance in parks, and cram into subways during rush hours. The only places left desolate are the nucleic test centers, where the city tested 11 million residents — more than half of its population – in less than three weeks.

A guard takes the temperature of customers coming into an Apple store in the
Sanlitun Shopping Center, Beijing. Photo by Hannah Zhang

A busy traffic intersection near the Ministry of Commerce, Beijing. Photo by Hannah Zhang

A subway transfer station at Line 6 Nanluoguxiang, Beijing. Photo by Hannah Zhang

People getting on and off subway Line 8 in Nanluoguxiang, Beijing. Photo by Hannah Zhang

People dance in a plaza in Dongdan, Beijing. Photo by Hannah Zhang

A closed test center at Tongren Hospital, Beijing. Photo by Hannah Zhang

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The road had not been easy for street vendors until the first week of June, when the Chinese government started urging street hawkers to set up open-air booths in public spaces even without government-issued licenses. 

The vendors, most of whom come from rural to urban areas to seek a living, don’t fit inn with the skyscrapers and shopping malls of the  big cities. Those without licenses were driven away by authorities who sought to improve the urban landscape, but have these vendors  have become the last hope of the Chinese government who fear social unrest caused by the dire unemployment situation.

As the first country hit by the coronavirus, China has seen a spiking unemployment rate since it imposed a national lockdown in February. The country’s National Bureau of Statistics reported the highest-on-record unemployment rate of 6.2% in February, up from 5.3% in the previous month. Some Chinese economists, such as Li Xunlei who works at Zhongtai Securities, said the actual number could run as high as 20%. 

To fight the unprecedented level of unemployment following the coronavirus pandemic, the Chinese Communist party made the unusual move of legalizing street vending. On June 1, China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang visited a street food vendor in Yantai, a coastal city in northeastern China. During the visit, Li said that street vendors and small business owners could alleviate the underperforming labor market.

“The street vendor economy is down to earth, but just as vital [as the big firms in terms of reviving China’s economy],” Li said. 

The Chinese government claimed that the new policy has added as many as 100,000 jobs in Chengdu. Zhou Tianyong, head of the International Relations Center at Dongbei of Finance and Economics, commented on Sohu Think Tank that there are approximately 100 million working-age people in China who are not registered in the country’s labor department. An unregistered worker, such as an unlicensed street vendor, is not properly taxed and thus needs to juggle with the authorities in the legal grey area. The legalization of such job markets could create more than 50 million jobs for this group, according to Zhou.

Part-time street vendor Changwei He sells toys to kids. Photo by Hannah Zhang.

Changwei He, a part-time street vendor who works as an administration officer at Chengdu Neusoft University, said he never thought about vending on the street until he saw a soaring number of street hawkers outside of his residential compound over the past week. 

“Then I started thinking, why can’t I make some money out of street vending? There are many kids playing around [the residential complex], so I bought some toys, found my own vending spot, and sold them to parents who brought their kids out to play.” 

On a good day, He sold 18 items in three hours and made 400 yuan (or $57). It’s not a significant income compared to what he earned in the university, at least for now. But He is optimistic about generating more profits as he has gradually learned to “pick the best hour and best site.”

“If the policy allows,” he said, “I will keep vending on the street.”

Yet the policy draws backlash as street vendors flock to sidewalks and footbridges in urban areas. Beijing Daily, the official paper of CCP’s Beijing Municipal Committee, published a commentary criticizing street vending for being an unseemly sight in Beijing a week after the State Council endorsed the move. 

“Street vendor economy is not for every city,” the commentator Jing Ping wrote. “Beijing is the capital of China. It represents the country, and it has its own way to keep the unemployment rate low.”

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Felipe is not that lucky. Living in a small town that borders New Hampshire, he gets up at 7 am every Saturday to catch a van that takes him to Manchester. The 18-year-old will then work at a food stand in the Southern   New Hampshire University Arena for 10 hours, and head back home in the midnight with $100 in hand.

Both Vanessa and Felipe are looking forward to a higher minimum wage being implemented in New Hampshire. The current rate of $7.25 an hour is the lowest in New England but the cost of living is among the highest in the nation.    These teens are not  alone.

In May 2019, a survey  by Public Policy Polling showed that more than 60% of New Hampshire residents strongly supported raising the minimum wage to $12 by 2022. It would affect more than 150,000 employees who make up 24% of New Hampshire’s labor force, according to a research by the Economic Policy Institute.

 The Democratic Presidential candidates want to push it further. They  want to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.  Of the seven candidates who qualified for the February debates in the 2020 election cycle, five support a federal minimum wage of $15, including Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders, the two forerunners in the Iowa caucus. A $15 minimum wage would benefit even more New Hampshire workers – some  225,000 people in New Hampshire, representing 36% of the state’s labor force, according to a report by the National Employment Project.

Calls to double the minimum wage in New Hampshire have garnered  tremendous support from local unions. SEA/SEIU Local 1984, a New Hampshire branch of the Service Employees International Union, announced on January 12 that it would endorse Bernie Sanders for the Democratic presidential nomination. The endorsement decision distanced the local branch from its national affiliate, which has so far remained neutral in the presidential race.

Yet economists do not think minimum wage alone would do much to New Hampshire’s economy, which already has one of the lowest poverty rates in the nation. A classical economic theory suggests that a higher minimum wage could lead to a higher unemployment rate as companies lay off workers when they cannot afford to pay higher wages,  according to Guido Menzio, professor of labor economics at New York University.

The theory does seem to be on display in New Hampshire where the state’s $7.25 minimum wage law is accompanied by a 2.6% unemployment rate, the third-lowest in the nation.

Menzio also points out that an increase in the minimum wage might improve the efficiency of the economy by weeding out unproductive employers. But, he said, it does not necessarily improve workers’ living conditions.

“Workers may be paid $15 rather than $10 an hour but required to have their own transportation, work longer effective hours, or work more intense hours,” said Menzio.

C.J., who used to work as a pastry chef in New Hampshire for 20 years, agreed with Menzio on the point that a simple increase in wage did not make his life easier. “I used to live on minimum wage for years,” said C.J. who spoke anonymously because he did not want to be seen being critical of his employer.  “when I got promoted to the management level, I started working 60, 70, or even 80 hours per week. If you divide the pay by the hours I work, I was paid even less than the minimum wage.”

What C.J. really likes about his  current job is that his employer provides him with a solid benefit package. “Now I have insurance, and can take a paid-leave — these are more important factors than a simple rise in wage,” said C.J.

Ethan, a first-year student at Manchester Community College who works 1o hours at an  ice-cream stand and 20 hours as a construction worker, says he gets paid $300 per week and needs more money. “But I don’t think $15 would do much to my life,” said Ethan, “I think the inflation will ultimately offset such little increase in my hourly wage.”

Karen Conway, economist at the University of New Hampshire, is a strong opponent of a $15 minimum wage for the state. “The cost of living varies dramatically across the country and even within New Hampshire,” said Conway. “The northern part of the state is more rural and hence has more small firms, which are more likely to lay off people if the minimum wage rises.”

Jacob Vigdor, an expert on minimum wage who teaches at the University of Washington, thinks the effect of a rise of minimum wage on unemployment depends on the economy’s condition. “If the minimum wage is raised rapidly in the middle of a recession, employers may face greater difficulty in making payroll. If the wage is phased in slowly in a strong labor market, it may have no impact at all as wages tend to rise naturally in a strong labor market.”

Bruce Sacerdote, a labor economist at Dartmouth College, thinks that the labor market in New Hampshire is strong enough to afford some layoff. “I am in favor [of a $15 minimum wage] given recent studies on the minimum wage law that suggest that this does put a floor on wages for low-income folks, and the reductions in employment are not severe,” said Sacerdote.

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